Grading the groundhogs

Groundhog Day has been celebrated in the United States since at least February 2, 1886. Starting in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, with its now-famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, the tradition spread throughout America. It is now celebrated all over, and not just with groundhogs. There are also other weather-predicting animals (and stuffed toys), including a duck, an alligator and even a fish!

These furry critters are usually looked to for fun rather than real forecasts. If you’re looking for the real deal, you can find the National Weather Service’s expected long-term forecast here.

Nineteen groundhogs and alternative groundhogs have been selected to participate in this competition, based on the following qualifications:

1. They must have been prognosticating for at least 20 years.
2. They must be active prognosticators as of February 2, 2024.

These groundhogs — along with a tortoise, whose emergence from his winter brumation (hibernation for reptiles) foretells the coming of Spring, and a Prairie dog statue, whose shadow at sunrise predicts how long it will be until Spring arrives — have been graded and ranked based on their accuracy over the past 20 years, using the March temperature averages for the U.S. each year from 2005 to 2024. You can find more information on the contestants hereoffsite link.

Without further ado, here are the United States’ most accurate groundhogs to date.

First Place: Staten Island Chuck

Also known as Charles G. Hogg, Staten Island Chuck lives in New York City Staten Island Zoo. Despite being so reliable at foretelling the weather, his behavior can be a bit unpredictable. He once bit the hand of the Mayor of New York City!

Second Place: General Beauregard Lee

As Georgia’s Official Weather Prognosticator, General Beauregard Lee lives in Weathering Heights, his groundhog-sized mansion at Dauset Trails Nature Center in Jackson, Georgia. We hear he’s a fan of hashbrowns.

Third Place: Lander Lil

Lander Lil is not a groundhog, but a bronze statue of a prairie dog residing in Lander, Wyoming, on the grounds of the local post office. She was modeled after a real live prairie dog who lived in that area. In 2001, Lander Lil was stolen and a search party was organized to find her. She was later found at the town dump and returned home.

Full Rankings

*Note that some groundhogs did not make predictions every year in the past 20 years.

Special Mention: Punxsatawney Phil

Although he is not the most accurate seasonal prognosticator, we would be remiss not to honor the longest-running weather-forecasting groundhog in the United States, Punxsutawney Phil. A beloved national celebrity, legend has it that he has been prophesying when spring would arrive from his burrow on Gobler’s Knob since 1887. How has he lived for so long? The answer is simple… the “groundhog nog” fed to him each fall at Punxsutawney’s annual Groundhog Picnic!

That rounds up our groundhog accuracy rankings for 2024. You can find more interesting and useful NCEI data here and their temperature data here. Happy Groundhog Day!