RISING TENSIONS WITH NORTH KOREA
The world has been wondering where President Trump will face his first national security crisis. This week it has looked as if North Korea might be the first hot spot. A series of ballistic missile tests and other provocative actions by North Korea, a nuclear-capable country, have heightened regional anxieties and stirred speculation about America’s reaction.
The most recent tests involved the simultaneous launch on Monday of four missiles, which landed off Japan’s coast. The North Koreans have described the tests as drills for striking American bases in Japan, but the ultimate goal is assumed to be a strike on the United States. Some experts expect Pyongyang to have that capability within four years.
This use of multiple missiles raised concerns that the North was trying out a new attack strategy that could overwhelm Japan’s limited defenses, analysts said. The tests almost certainly were a reaction to annual United States-South Korea military exercises, which began last week and which the North considers a threat. It is just three weeks since the North crossed another milestone by launching a solid-rocket missile, which is more efficient than the liquid-fueled missiles it had previously relied on; there were also tests in August and September.
North Korea now possesses the fissile material for perhaps 21 nuclear weapons and is steadily improving its ability to deliver them with missiles. The country also has chemical weapons, which may have been used when the half brother of North Korea’s dictator, Kim Jong-un, was assassinated in Malaysia last month. Malaysia has accused several North Korean citizens of using VX nerve agent to kill him, which seems plausible and underscores the lengths to which Mr. Kim is willing to go to eliminate perceived rivals.
Adding to the tension is a decision to install an American-made antimissile system in South Korea. Although the system has been under discussion for some time, the two countries have expedited its deployment, which began on Monday and is expected to take two months.
The move angered North Korea and China, the North’s main food and fuel supplier, which said it could lead to a break in relations with South Korea and force an arms race.
The Obama administration had long warned China that the United States and South Korea would have no choice but to deploy the antimissile system if China didn’t pressure North Korea to end its nuclear program. Beijing seemed not to take the warning seriously, although it recently restricted imports of North Korean coal.
How Mr. Trump intends to handle this brewing crisis is unclear, but he has shown an inclination to respond aggressively. On Monday, the White House denounced the missile tests and warned of “very dire consequences.”
One possibility is intensifying the cyber and electronic warfare effort against North Korea undertaken by the Obama administration and first reported by The Times on Sunday. Other options include some kind of military action, presumably against missile launch sites, and continuing to press China to cut off support. The Trump administration has also discussed reintroducing nuclear weapons into South Korea, an extremely dangerous idea.
Granted, negotiating with the North Koreans has long proved frustrating. But the Obama and Bush administrations got nowhere by further isolating the already-reclusive nation. At this point, only a new round of engagement aimed at getting North Korea to freeze its nuclear and missile programs, and tougher sanctions to back that up, holds any reasonable promise of working.
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